SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 4/11/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6820/10
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6981/6767
NOV EOM STRADDLE 6929/6399
NOV MOPEX STRADDLE 6929/6399
DEC QOPEX STRADDLE 6626/7054
DAILY STRUCTURE - BALANCE - 6913/6843
WEEKLY STRUCTURE - ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER - 6843
MONTHLY STRUCTURE - ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER - 6591
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6845/55
DAILY RANGE RES 6941 SUP 6826
2 SIGMA RES 6999 SUP 6768
DAILY VWAP BEARISH 6880
VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 18.5
TRADES & TARGETS
SHORT ON ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET 2 SIG SUP
LONG ON TEST/REJECT OF 2 SIG SUP TARGET 6826 > DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES COLOR: NARROW
S&P closed +17bps at 6,851, with a notable MOC sell imbalance of -$1 billion. NDX rose +44bps to 25,972, while R2K and Dow declined -38bps and -48bps, closing at 2,470 and 47,336, respectively. Trading volume reached 19.7 billion shares across all U.S. equity exchanges, exceeding the YTD daily average of 17.3 billion shares. VIX dropped -166bps to 17.16, WTI Crude gained +10bps to $61.04, the U.S. 10-year yield edged up +2bps to 4.10%, gold advanced +63bps to $4,021, the DXY rose +7bps to 99.87, and Bitcoin fell -3% to $106,801.
The week began quietly with narrow trading, as ~65% of SPX names declined despite AI bellwethers driving gains. Notable performers included AMZN (+4%), NVDA (+2%), and Memory stocks (+3-6%) on positive developments like MSFT’s AI cloud deal, reports of TSM raising prices in 2026, and favorable DRAM pricing updates. Our Long Mega-cap Tech vs. Short Non-Profitable Tech strategy delivered +322bps, while sectors like Global Rare Earths (-11%), Quantum Computing (-6%), and Bitcoin (-3%) faced sharp declines. On the macro front, ISM Manufacturing data came in slightly weaker at 48.7 (vs. prior 49.1), though there were bright spots with lower prices paid and higher new orders.
M&A activity was a key theme, highlighted by Kimberly-Clark’s $40 billion cash-and-stock acquisition of Kenvue, SM Energy and Civitas Resources’ $12.8 billion merger (including debt), and Eaton’s $9.5 billion purchase of Boyd Thermal from Goldman Sachs.
Trading activity on our floor was subdued, rated a 4/10, with a net sell imbalance of -451bps versus the 30-day average of -38bps. The LO community drove -$2 billion in net selling, focused on broader tech/macro themes and, to a lesser extent, healthcare. Hedge fund flows were flat, with modest tech and financials supply offset by demand in utilities and healthcare. After hours, PLTR surged +4% on a strong revenue beat and acceleration, solidifying its position as the third-largest software company globally.
This week, ~25% of the S&P will report earnings, representing ~10% of market cap. Key events include AMD earnings post-close tomorrow, CAT (Tuesday) and BAC (Wednesday) investor days, and TSLA’s shareholder meeting (Thursday). The Q3 earnings season has been one of the strongest in 25 years, though stock reactions on earnings days have been muted.
With November underway, the heaviest U.S. mutual fund tax-loss selling is behind us, and the corporate buyback window has opened, with over $5 billion in daily equity repurchases. Approximately 70% of companies are now in the open window, expected to rise to 85% by week’s end. Historically, November is the second most active month for our desk, and we anticipate robust flows as companies aim to meet year-end buyback goals. Consumer Discretionary typically outperforms in November, averaging +8.4% over the past five years with an 80% hit rate, marking it as the group’s strongest month relative to the market.
In derivatives, a choppy morning transitioned to a calmer afternoon as volatility eased alongside a modest market rally. AI-related pre-market headlines drove NDX higher, while RUT and RSP underperformed. After opening, the market sold off sharply, with notable dispersion between AI names and the broader SPX. Volatility spiked during the selloff but later relaxed as the market rebounded. We see further room for volatility to decline and favor selling vol, particularly on the front end of the curve. The SPX tomorrow straddle is pricing in sub-50bps moves.
Looking ahead, the Supreme Court’s tariff hearing later this week could provide insights into the administration’s trade policy. Hedge fund performance in October showed global Fundamental L/S total returns rising +1.75% (now +13.86% YTD), driven primarily by beta gains and, to a lesser extent, positive alpha.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!