Standard Chartered Global Research report dated December 9, 2025.

## 🧭 Summary

Standard Chartered has significantly lowered its near-term Bitcoin price forecasts while maintaining its long-term bullish target. The bank argues that the "crypto winter" narrative is incorrect; instead, the market is experiencing a consolidation phase.

The core thesis is that one of the two main engines of price growth—**Corporate Treasury buying (DATs)**—has stalled, leaving ETF inflows as the sole driver of future price appreciation. Consequently, the timeline to reach $500,000 has been pushed back from 2028 to 2030.

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## 📉 Key Drivers for the Downgrade

### 1. The End of "DAT" Buying (Corporate Treasuries)

The report suggests that corporate buying of Bitcoin (by "Digital Asset Treasuries" or DATs like MicroStrategy) is likely over.

* The Mechanism: Previously, companies traded at a high premium (mNAV > 1.0), allowing them to issue equity at a premium to buy Bitcoin, effectively "turning $1 into $1.50."

* The Shift: Valuations have dropped. MicroStrategy’s mNAV has fallen below 1.0 for the first time since 2023. Without this premium, the financial engineering loop no longer works.

* Outcome: Expect consolidation of holdings rather than selling, but no new buying pressure from this sector.

### 2. Reliance on ETFs "One Leg Only"

With corporate buying gone, Bitcoin is now effectively driven by one leg only: ETF buying.

* Slower Pace: While ETF inflows are expected to continue, they will likely be slower and more periodic than the "dual-engine" buying seen previously.

* Gold Parallel: The report compares this to Gold ETFs, which took ~7 years to reach structural equilibrium.

### 3. The "Halving Cycle" is Dead

Standard Chartered explicitly rejects the "4-year halving cycle" theory.

* They argue that price peaks occurring 18 months after a halving is no longer a valid predictor.

Price action is now dominated by *demand flows (ETFs)** rather than supply shocks.

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## 📊 Revised Price Forecasts

The bank has slashed year-end targets for the next four years, pushing the long-term peak out by two years.

| Timeframe | Old Forecast (USD) | New Forecast (USD) | Change |

| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |

| End-2025 | $200,000 | $100,000 | 📉 -50% |

| End-2026 | $300,000 | $150,000 | 📉 -50% |

| End-2027 | $400,000 | $225,000 | 📉 -44% |

| End-2028 | $500,000 | $300,000 | 📉 -40% |

| End-2030 | N/A | $500,000 | 🎯 Target |

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## 💡 Macro & Long-Term Support

Despite the near-term downgrade, the report outlines several bullish factors that make the $500,000 target attainable by 2030:

* Political Pressure on the Fed: The likely appointment of Kevin Hassett to the FOMC and pressure from President Trump could lead to rate cuts even with high inflation. This increases the appeal of Bitcoin as a hedge against US Treasury risks.

* Portfolio Optimization:

* Global portfolios are still massively underweight Bitcoin relative to Gold.

An "optimal" portfolio (based on volatility) would hold between *12% and 36% Bitcoin** (vs. Gold). Current market caps imply a mix of only 5% Bitcoin.

Closing this gap represents a *2.5x to 7x upside** from current prices.